Elections “minus PTI” would be a disaster
Maybe imprisoning the country’s most popular politician is a bad idea.
Let’s be clear about one thing. There can be no stability in Pakistan without Imran Khan.
No, I have not overdosed on highlights from the ’92 World Cup. I’m merely acknowledging the reality of public sentiment. And yet, we are nearing an election where, in all likelihood, the country’s most popular leader will be in jail, and his political party will not be allowed to contest or even field candidates in most seats.
Here’s why that’s an even worse idea than you think.
Whoever forms the next government is, to put it bluntly, screwed. By the start of their tenure in June 2024, the country’s debt to GDP ratio will have climbed to 77%, a level that the current finance minister has already declared to be “unsustainable”. A new IMF program will be agreed (assuming they lend to us again), and we all know what comes next.
Your electricity is going to get more expensive to tackle the power sector’s circular debt. Your gas will too, that is if you get any in the first place. The rupee will depreciate further due to the weight of external payments we have to make over the next few years. And this is only the stuff that will happen for certain.
Ideally, the next government will go much further than this and undertake some long-overdue reforms. It will take on the feudal and business elite by progressively taxing agriculture and real estate. It will restructure the FBR, which has come to rely on import tariffs as a flimsy excuse for actual tax collection. Lowering our import tariffs would also have the important knock-on effect of making our exports cheaper, since many of them use imported goods as raw materials. Oh, and it would also rework our export incentives to ensure they actually work, unlike the current system where each extra dollar of exports comes at the expense of 83 to 93 cents in government subsidies.
Now, let’s come back to reality. Will a government borne out of a PTI-less election be able to take any of these steps? Leave aside individual political parties for a moment and consider the situation from their point of view. From the very beginning, this government will know that it has no true mandate from the people. Unpopular from Day 1, its popularity will further sink as it takes some of the aforementioned necessary steps to avoid economic implosion. Street protests will intensify, and PTI and the opposition parties will pile on the criticism too, justified or not.
In such a scenario, forget undertaking reforms that challenge powerful interest groups, even surviving for five years would be an achievement. Most likely, the next government will just try to hobble along—relying on the military to keep it in power, cracking down on protestors here and there, and hoping that popular discontent does not spiral out of control. So, the same as always then.
What we need now, more than ever, is for all political stakeholders (uniformed or not) to agree on a mutual path forward for the economy. Instead, what we’re stuck with is an unprecedented attempt to eradicate the most popular political party in the country. Things are going to get ugly.
What I’m reading this week:
The state of statelessness: Why Pakistan’s move to expel refugees is unjust (Asad Rahim Khan, Dawn)
Facing pressure in India, Netflix and Amazon back down on daring films (Gerry Shih and Anant Gupta, Washington Post - gift article link)
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What a load of horseshit.